How to Read 1RM Trendlines
The "Gym Bro" approach to tracking progress is simple: Did I lift more weight than last week?
If yes: "I'm getting stronger." If no: "I'm plateauing."
But strength isn't linear. Recovery fluctuates. Rep ranges change. Basing your entire self-worth on a single workout is a recipe for frustration.
Enter Estimated 1RM (e1RM) Trendlines.
The Formula: What is e1RM?
We don't need you to squat your absolute max every week to know if you're getting stronger. By using data from your sub-maximal sets, we can calculate your theoretical ceiling.
The most common formula (Epley) looks like this:
e1RM = Weight × (1 + 0.0333 × Reps)
- Example A: You Squat 225 lbs for 5 reps. e1RM = ~262 lbs.
- Example B: Next week, you Squat 235 lbs for 3 reps. e1RM = ~258 lbs.
Even though you added weight to the bar, your performance potential actually dipped slightly. This is the nuance that raw numbers miss.
Signal vs. Noise
A single workout is a data point. A month of workouts is a trend.
The "Noisy" Workout
You slept 4 hours, missed lunch, and are stressed about work. You squat 225x3 instead of 225x5. Your e1RM drops 15 lbs on the chart. Verdict: Ignore it. This is noise.
The "Signal" Trend
Over the last 6 weeks, your e1RM graph shows a choppy but distinct upward slope. Some days are down, but the "floor" of your bad days is rising. Verdict: You are getting stronger. This is signal.
How to Interpret the Shapes
When you look at your strength analytics in Bion, look for these patterns:
1. The Staircase (Beginner/Early Intermediate)
- Shape: Sharp jumps up, flat line, sharp jump up.
- Meaning: Neurological adaptation. Your brain is learning to use the muscle you already have.
- Action: Keep doing what you're doing. Don't change the program.
2. The Sawtooth (Intermediate/Advanced)
- Shape: Up for 3 weeks, down for 1 week, up higher for 3 weeks.
- Meaning: Functional overreaching. You accumulate fatigue (trend dips or flattens), then you deload (trend spikes).
- Action: Trust the process. If the trend doesn't rebound after a deload, you may need more volume.
3. The Flatline (Plateau)
- Shape: Dead flat for 6+ weeks with tight variance.
- Meaning: You have adapted to the stimulus.
- Action: It's time to change variables. Change the rep range, increase volume, or swap the variation (e.g., Low bar -> High bar).
Data-Driven Training with Bion
Bion does this math for you instantly. We ignore warm-up sets and anomalies to generate a smoothed trendline of your strength.
Stop guessing. Look at the line.
Ready to Upgrade Your Training?
Join thousands of lifters using Bion to track, analyze, and optimize their strength journey with AI-powered insights.
